21st Century Business Herald reporter Ye Maisui reported from Guangzhou that gold has hit a new high. This is the third time this year that gold has set a new record, with the spot price of gold hitting $2,233.81 an ounce overnight, refreshing the high of $2,222.06 an ounce on March 20. Domestic gold also continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 528.29 yuan / gram today. It hit a new high in the 16-year history of listing. Since May last year, gold has been breaking through new highs, although the market has a certain psychological preparation for the rise of gold this year, but its performance is still much better than all institutional forecasts, for which many institutions have raised gold price expectations, the current market for gold spot expectations are generally at 2300 US dollars / ounce.
Six banks raised the minimum level of their accumulated funds
As gold rose so sharply that banks even had to adjust the starting point for their deposits. At present, 6 banks have raised the starting point of gold accumulation, and the Agricultural Bank of China recently announced that it will adjust the starting point of the deposit gold pass No. 2 regular investment transaction from March 29, and the purchase starting point will be adjusted to 550 yuan, and the incremental unit of the transaction will remain unchanged (10 yuan). Agricultural Bank of China said that in the future, it will continue to adjust the starting amount of fixed investment with reference to the market gold price. This is the second time this year that the Agricultural Bank of China has raised the starting point of accumulation, and on January 5, the Agricultural Bank of China raised the starting point of the fixed investment purchase of the No. 2 deposit fund from 450 yuan to 500 yuan.
The official website of Ping An Bank recently announced the adjustment of the minimum purchase amount of Ping An Gold Accumulation Business (including the Regular Investment Plan). According to the announcement, from April 2, 2024, the minimum investment amount of the fixed investment plan set by the amount of Ping An Bank's Ping An Gold Accumulation Business will be increased from 500 yuan to 600 yuan.
Ping An Bank's announcement also shows that the AIP plans that have been successfully set before the adjustment will continue to be implemented and will not be affected, and the new and modified AIP plans must meet the latest AIP set amount requirements of Ping An Bank.
Ping An Bank said that it will continue to pay attention to the changes in the gold market and adjust the above-mentioned starting amount and limit in a timely manner, and the specific adjustment will be announced separately through the bank's official website and other channels.
In addition to the above two banks, this year, there are also China Construction Bank, Bank of Ningbo, China Merchants Bank and Bank of China, all of which have a starting point of 600 yuan.
In the view of many experts, the current round of banks raised the subscription threshold of accumulated funds, mainly driven by the rapid rise in gold prices. Xia Yingying, an analyst at Nanhua Futures Nonferrous Metals, pointed out that "recently, the price of gold has risen rapidly and exceeded 500 yuan/gram, while the minimum number of grams of bank accumulation gold is 1 gram. ”
Qi Qingqing, a senior researcher at Zhaojin Investment, believes that although the Federal Reserve has not officially started to cut interest rates, the international gold price is still in a high level of shock, and even refreshed a record high, and the starting amount of this adjustment has a great relationship with the gold price rising by more than 500 yuan/gram.
Gold's super performance has caused institutions to raise their price expectations for gold this year, and after a wave of sharp pulls, the market's bearish voice has almost disappeared. ANZ was the first to be bullish on gold, and recently raised its price forecast for gold again. ANZ recently raised its year-end gold forecast to $2,300 from $2,200 an ounce, reflecting increased safe-haven demand for gold. The move is based on an analysis of the current economic uncertainty and market volatility. Analysts reminded that investors should pay close attention to market dynamics and rationally allocate assets to deal with potential risks.
Nicholas Snowdon, head of the industrial metals research team at Goldman Sachs Research, said in a recent research note that in the medium term, Goldman Sachs Research continues to take a constructive view on gold and believes that the Fed's eventual easing support has the potential to reactivate gold ETFs that are currently dormant. Against this backdrop, Goldman Sachs Research raised its 2024 average gold price forecast to $2,180 from $2,090 per ounce and raised its target price to $2,300 per ounce by the end of the year. This is the third time this year that the agency has revised its gold outlook.
Citi predicts that gold could rise to $2,300 an ounce in the second half of 2024, especially in anticipation of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Banks extend gold trading hours
Investment enthusiasm is high, and some banks have also extended the golden trading hours. On March 18, China Construction Bank (CCB) issued the Announcement on the Adjustment of Trading Hours for Personal Gold Accumulation Business, which pointed out that in order to better meet the asset allocation needs of individual customers, the bank will adjust the trading hours of individual gold accumulation business. Starting from March 25, 2024 (Monday), the trading hours of individual gold accumulation business will be adjusted from 9:10 to 22:30 Beijing time to 9:10 to 24:00 Beijing time, of which the exchange transaction time is 9:10 to 16:30 Beijing time (if the transaction is conducted through the counter of the branch, the business hours of the branch shall prevail).
China Merchants Bank also announced the revision of the "Gold Account Business Purchase and Redemption Service Hours", starting from March 27, 2024, the service time for gold account business purchase and redemption will be adjusted from 9 a.m. to 22 p.m. Beijing time on the trading day to 9 a.m. to 24 p.m. China Merchants Bank said that the extension of service hours will provide customers with more convenient repurchase and redemption services to meet the needs of different customers. Investors can pay close attention to the latest developments of China Merchants Bank's gold account business in order to better plan their gold investment.
Xia Fengguang, manager of Rongzhi Investment Fund, said in an interview with reporters that the factors for the rise of gold are many. In the long run, there are factors such as serious over-issuance of the US dollar and shaky credit status, and in the medium term, the US dollar interest rate hike cycle has peaked, and the market is pricing in the possibility of multiple interest rate cuts during the year. In the short term, it is driven by hot money in the market. In the past year or two, gold has diverged from its traditional pricing anchor, that is, the performance of the real interest rate in the United States, which coincides with the rhythm of the large increase in holdings by central banks in emerging countries, which reveals the deep background of the deepening geopolitical crisis and the change in the status of the US dollar as a credit currency. However, from the perspective of historical fluctuations in gold, the annualized absolute return is not high, the speculative atmosphere is overheated, and the short-term rapid rise will overdraft the future gains.
Cinda Futures also said that in the short term, gold prices may usher in a certain correction pressure under the trend of dollar appreciation, but the correction of gold prices is still limited under the support of currency and safe-haven attributes, and gold prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. There are two main reasons, one is that there is still great uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, and there are still no optimistic signals in the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Short-term safe-haven demand may continue to support gold prices, second, the pace of central bank gold purchases may continue to drive the gold price pivot, and SPDR gold-backed ETF holdings have risen for two consecutive weeks, suggesting that investors' optimism about gold has risen. In the medium and long term, under the trend of de-globalization, the pace of central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks are difficult to subside, and will still dominate the trend of gold prices, and the marginal force still depends on the impact of the US economic trend on market expectations and the Fed's behavior.
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