Huang Guixuan, Nancai Wealth Management Research Group
List screening conditions: public offering of "fixed income + equity" products issued by wealth management companies with an investment cycle of more than 3 years, and products with positive returns at the end of each complete natural quarter in the past 1 year, and one product of the same series and investment cycle is retained.
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Sixty percent of the products achieved positive quarterly returns, and China Post Wealth Management Pension Wealth Management Products ranked first
According to the data of Nancai Wealth Management, as of March 21, 2024, a total of 72 public offering "fixed income + equity" products (unconsolidated product shares) with a duration of more than 3 years have lasted for more than 1 year, and a total of 50 products have calculated the net value performance after excluding the net value data that does not meet the index calculation conditions. Among them, a total of 30 products achieved positive quarterly returns, accounting for 60%.
In terms of the net value growth rate in the past 1 year, among the top 10 products, CNCBI Wealth Management has 2 products on the list, and China Post Wealth Management, Bank of China Wealth Management, CMB Wealth Management, IB Wealth Management, ICBC Wealth Management, CCB Wealth Management, SPDB Wealth Management and Beijing Bank Wealth Management have 1 product on the list.
From the perspective of income performance, China Post Wealth Management Pension Wealth Management Product "Post Bank Wealth Tim Yi Hongjin Closed-end Series 2022 Issue 1" ranked first, with a net value growth rate of more than 4% in the past 1 year, reaching 4.49%, and its maximum drawdown and annualized volatility are also at a low level among similar products, both below 1%, with significant advantages in low volatility and stability. Wealth Management of China and SPDB Wealth Management came second, ranking second and third respectively.
"Hongjin Closed-end Series 2022 Phase 1" has significant income advantages, and the cumulative net value has increased by more than 5% since its inception
In this issue, the research team of Nancai Wealth Management Tong analyzes the pension wealth management product of China Post Wealth Management "Post Bank Wealth Tianyi Hongjin Closed Series 2022 Issue 1".
The product is the first pension wealth management product issued by China Post Wealth Management, which was established on August 19, 2022, with a fixed income investment nature, a risk level of R2 (medium and low risk), a closed-end net value operation model, and an investment cycle of 1,826 days. According to the product issuance announcement, the product raised scale is 3 billion yuan.
From the perspective of net value performance, the net value of the product has increased steadily since its establishment, and although the net value has fallen at the end of 2022 due to the sharp decline in the bond market, the net value of the product has rebounded rapidly, and it has achieved a positive quarterly return in the past year. As of March 20, 2024, the product has been established for 579 days, and the latest cumulative net value is 1.0505, with a cumulative net value growth rate of more than 5% since its inception, reaching 5.05%.
As far as pension wealth management products are concerned, this product also has a strong income advantage. According to the data of Nancai Wealth Management, as of March 25, a total of 10 wealth management companies have issued a total of 51 pension wealth management products, including 11 each of ICBC Wealth Management and CCB Wealth Management, 10 Everbright Wealth Management, 5 CMB Wealth Management, 3 each of Bank of Communications Wealth Management, IB Wealth Management and Bank of China Wealth Management, 2 each of ABC Wealth Management and China Post Wealth Management, and 1 BlackRock CCB Wealth Management. After excluding the products whose net value data disclosure does not meet the calculation conditions, the average return of pension wealth management products in the past year is 2.65%, and the average annualized volatility and maximum drawdown in the past year are 1.60% and 1.24%, respectively. In contrast, China Post Wealth Management's "Postal Bank Wealth Tim Yi Hongjin Closed-end Series 2022 Issue 1" has achieved a higher level of income and lower drawdown and volatility, and the product is more cost-effective.
From the perspective of holdings, according to the product investment report, as of the end of 2023, the positions after product penetration are mainly bonds and non-standard assets, accounting for 43.58% and 42.29% respectively, in addition, the product allocates a small amount of equity assets and public funds to increase income, accounting for 5.88% and 5.94% respectively. It is worth noting that the bottom can be configured with non-standard assets to increase the income is a major feature of closed-end pension wealth management products, and it is also the unique advantage of pension wealth management products against the pension target fund.
Looking forward to the asset performance and product operation logic in the future, the investment manager believes that from the recent economic data, the domestic economy continues to improve, consumption is basically stable, infrastructure investment has improved, and exports have stabilized month-on-month. It is expected that under the combined action of multiple factors, the macroeconomic situation in 2024 will improve compared with 2023: first, the fiscal policy will shift from "accumulation" to "force", the central government will increase leverage to hedge the risk of local governments and residents, and fiscal expenditure will promote the restoration of economic momentum; second, the actual inventory level is at a historical low, the repair trend has begun, and the strength of the economic cycle is conducive to the rise of the growth center; third, exports are sensitive to the global PMI and inventory cycle, and the inflection point has arrived.
At present, the overall yield, term spread and credit spread of the bond market are at a historically low level, with the rise in the primary supply of bonds in the second quarter, the volatility of income may increase, but in the loose monetary environment, the risk of the bond market is not large, and if the RRR and interest rate cuts are landed in the second quarter, the constraints on the downward trend of short-end yields are expected to open, and long-term yields are also expected to fall.
In terms of the equity market, around the Spring Festival this year, A-shares recovered from extremely pessimistic lows and ushered in a systematic rebound, and under the call of new quality productivity, the economy is expected to further optimize its structure while the aggregate volume improves. Therefore, "economic development" and "industrial upgrading" are the two main investment lines worth paying attention to in the future, and there are still structural opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, science and technology going overseas, and low valuation + performance reversal industries.
In terms of operational strategy, the investment manager said that on the one hand, there are still investment opportunities in the bond market, and will continue to adhere to the long-term investment logic of pension products and maintain the moderate duration of the portfolio; on the other hand, the investment strategy of equity assets, such as the conversion strategy, industry ETF rotation strategy, etc., will improve the income level of the portfolio through the allocation of large types of assets, and reduce the volatility of the portfolio.
(Data Analyst: Zhang Zhifang)
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